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02 August 2010

Anomalous heat of 2010 may become normal by 2070

Air temperature in Moscow has been setting historical records one after another in the past more than 10 days. But this summer’s heat wave and drought may become normalcy by 2070, warns the head of the Climate Programme of the World Wildlife Fund-Russia Alexei Kokorin.        

The main abnormality is the duration of the heat wave. The previous record long heat wave in Russia in 1936 lasted for three weeks. But this country has never ever seen a heat wave of more than a month, says a member of the UNESCO Commission for Ecological Problems Vladimir Grachev, and elaborates.

The anomalous heat that has set in, in a large part of Russia and some other regions, is worrisome because it continues unabated. Heat waves do occur on a regular basis in some parts of the world, like Sahara or Central Asia, but these regions are known for their hot weather. But a very high air temperature that persists for too long in a place that’s known for a moderate climate certainly gives rise to concern and prompts all kinds of forecasts.    

According to forecasts in the wake of anomalous heat in France in 2003, (heat that claimed over a 1,000 lives there), scorcher will become normalcy in several dozen years unless humanity makes efforts to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Experts of the World Wildlife Fund claim that humanity has 60 years to settle the problem, but do not rule out that heat waves like the one in Russia this summer may become normal much earlier.     

Small wonder that many Russians speak of global warming, since night temperatures fluctuate around 30 degrees Celsius, while day temperature almost reaches 40 degrees Celsius. Although, speaking in all fairness, it has thus far been unknown whether it is human activity involving huge carbon dioxide discharges that is to blame, or outer space processes prompting the Earth’s magnetic flip-flops. People can’t even agree on carbon dioxide. It is a fact that carbon dioxide amounts are steadily on the increase in the atmosphere, but some claim that this is due to fuel combustion, while others believe that the situation has resulted from global warming, and carbon dioxide is released from the world oceans.       

   The man in the street feels that global warming will certainly augur well for northern Russia, for example. But one should realize that the warming in question is nothing short of a cataclysm that is fraught with nature’s hysterical behaviour in the form of hurricanes, rain and hail, and even icy winds. One shouldn’t expect the forecast warming to provide us with a subtropical climate, but what we will have for sure is winter weather continually turning upside down, from slush to very low air temperatures and back. That would badly affect harvests, with droughts giving way to floods; besides, heat will eventually bring back infections like the once-defeated malaria.         

We could obviously escape this kind of natural chaos by adopting moves that both Greenpeace and the World Wildlife Fund have long since advised us to make, specifically to control discharges into the atmosphere and introduce elementary irrigation systems. Forest devastation should be seen as an act that potentially leads to starvation and people’s death, and should be punished appropriately. Russian forests help save rivers, while the rivers are what can help us fight droughts. Nature has been most explicit about its discontent with human activity, and one can’t afford to ignore that discontent any longer.          

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